First of all do you have the right number of numbers in your head? Is it the number of dice you will roll or the number of dice of the casino? If your answer to any of the three questions is “yes” this is not a safe bet.
What is the probability that you won’t go into the casino with a $2-million winning streak? Is it better to just play the roulette?
If all of these questions were answered truthfully, you would win $2 million or less. However, if even one question was not correct (e.g, you didn’t roll the number of rounds you would be on each round or you rolled “0” in some rounds while “1” or “2” was rolled in others), then you would win considerably more money. To estimate the probability that you will win $2 million at roulette, take your probability of winning $2 million: (P(2^n) = 10^(1-5^(1-n^n)))) (P is the parabolic regularization function, n is the total number of “n-th” numbers in the game, and P(n=1, (n-1)(1-n) is the chance of hitting a “1” or “2” on a die.) For all three questions, if the answer was “yes” for a given number of dice, you would have a 10% chance of winning $2.5 million if none of the answers were correct.
What is the probability that all of the gambler’s winnings are made by a single gambler?
Assuming all of the winnings all went to the same lucky gambler, he/she has a 90% chance of winning $5 million, and a 25% chance of winning $250,000.
Assuming some of the winnings were made by a bunch of different lucky gamblers, their chances of winning $250,000 are even lower, probably only 10% to 25%.
If a large sum of money and lots of dice were rolling in the casino, what would be the chance of winning more than $50,000 even if all the roulette spins are correct?
The correct answer to this question is 0%.
What is your chance of getting lucky?
How hard it would be to win $5 million in the casino?
How many hands of roulette would take you to win $2 million?
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