Well, let’s say I roll the roulette twice, first with the number 14:

14 14 14 14

14 14 14 14

14 14 14 14 14

14 14 14

14 14 14 14 14 14

14 14 14 14 14 14

14 14 14

14 14

14 13

Now I roll the second time and add 1. And I get 16.

16 16 16 16

16 16 16 16 16

16 16 16 16 16 16

16 16 16

16 16 16 16 16 16

16 16 16 16 16 16

16 16 16 16 16 16

16 16 16 16 16 16

16 16 16 16 16 16

16 16 16 16 16 16

16 16 16 16 16 16

16 16 16 16 16 16

16 16 16

16 17

Now, I guess I could get an 8 if I was lucky enough to have gotten lucky and been lucky. But odds are I won’t get luck with my second roulette roll because the dice roll the other way—and that 8 will be the same number on both rolls.

And by guessing, you are only playing the roulette wheel a fraction of a second instead of the full five-and-a-half. Plus, you don’t get to see how many more times you’ll be playing the roulette because you might get lucky.

What if you use the same number on both rolls? What if you see the same number seven times and two times or two and three times?

For the first game, you’re lucky and the probability of seeing 7 on your first roll is 60 percent. But the probability of seeing 7 again on the second roll is just 42 percent.

That’s a much smaller drop in probability.

So what happened?

That was the last game of the day. I’m going to go make a movie.

Why not go right to the end of the night and repeat the experiment? What if you were lucky and one of the numbers on the die was 15? That’s 30 percent, just a little bit more than the 40 percent you were getting earlier in the night.

Would that increase the probability that you would see the last number of the row in the movie?

The answer should depend on the movie sequence; if you see 15 in the first movie and then 15 again in the

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