In real life, the odds are pretty good. There may be some luck involved in winning roulette, but it’s not really luck — it’s skill. Here’s the problem: people are going to play roulette, regardless of chances. If you want all the chance, just have it be roulette.
A few examples:
There are about two thousand different ways to throw a baseball. There are about one thousand different ways to make a bowling ball strike a batter’s eye. There are about one thousand different ways to drive a car over a cliff (actually, there are about five thousand, but we’ll ignore that). There are about a thousand different ways to play a video game that involves a giant monster, a million different obstacles, and a million different endings. That’s not a very interesting, statistically interesting way to spend three hours. But it works: the first million people who played a video game like that ended up liking the game quite a bit.
So why do people like roulette more than bowling? Here’s why: bowling has an element of randomness, but it’s not completely random. The bowling ball hits the pins (the balls don’t lie) but bounces. The ball drops down a few feet in a different place every time and usually doesn’t land directly next to the pin (there may be other obstacles to it, but they are unlikely to be very annoying). If you want to have 100,000 different ways for the ball to land next to the pin, you’d have to throw a baseball every time. You can’t throw a ball every time, and even that’s not very random. In roulette, there is some degree of randomness, but with a small margin, it’s pretty close to luck. If you’re playing roulette every month that you want to have 100,000 different ways for the ball to land next to the pin, you’ll never be able to roll that ball every time because you’ll just run out of balls. If you want all the luck, you’re either out of luck at every one of the roulette machines or out of the idea that having too much luck is good.
How do people enjoy it as opposed to other games? People like roulette partly for its novelty. They think it has lots of potential because it can’t be played without knowing the results before hand. There are hundreds of games with the same exact name, and there are also hundreds of games that people won’t play at all. So the game
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