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The following information comes from the 2016 AOPA General Assembly.
As more voters become engaged in the 2014 mid-term elections, the 2014 election has the opportunity to impact not just local, state, and federal elections, but also state-level referendums and other federal and state policies, as well as major policy decisions by state legislatures.
While there has been a significant increase in national voter turnout in 2014, we are concerned about the increased attention it has received from both major political parties, the general public, the media, and local and state legislatures.
The national turnout rate was up from 2012, with 57% of eligible voters casting ballots last year. However, our state-level data is still preliminary and we are continuing to compile data through Sept. 30, 2015 to verify and update the numbers.
In many ways, 2012 may prove to be the turning point in turnout in the 2016 presidential election. We are currently predicting that there will be a close race in national, midterm congressional races, as well as statewide initiatives.
A number of national groups, including the League of Conservation Voters (LCV), are running the following campaign and media messaging. Read more here. Click on the photo for more information and the relevant issue. It is also available for print and download in the 2014 AOPA report.
On an individual basis, 2014 was a down year for voters. According to the American National Election Studies, in November 29 states or territories had a lower rate of voter turnout (4.9 percent) compared to the prior November (5.4 percent).
In 2012, voters were more inclined to participate in election campaigns. For example, in seven states (Idaho, Louisiana, West Virginia, Colorado, North Dakota, Georgia, and Nebraska) voter registration grew by more than 10% in November 2012.
In 2014, turnout dropped in 16 states and territories (Alabama, Kansas, Mississippi, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Wisconsin and Wyoming) where voter registration declined by more than 10% in the preceding November (see Tables 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5).
As in 2012, voter turnout dropped in states with high numbers of African Americans. The number of registered voters from African-Americans in Mississippi had fallen by 5
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